Stock Market Update
Zip Dobyns
The drop in the stock market during the early months of 1984 has strengthened my faith in the horoscope of the New York Exchange which we published in the Gemini 1983 issue of The Mutable Dilemma. I still consider the time to be speculative, but I have worked with both transits and progressions for an increased number of events in the history of the Exchange, and the chart for 9:56 EST has had appropriate aspects to the angles for the events.
In the Gemini 1983 issue of The Mutable Dilemma, I suggested a market correction in early 1984 since the progressed Moon would be conjunct Saturn, the same aspect we had at the 1929 crash. Since neither the market nor the economy were highly inflated at the beginning of this year, I expected only a correction; not a crash. If the speculative time is accurate, the progressed Moon continued over the MC which is similar to Saturn in meaning but of course not as strong, and it also continues in opposition to progressed Neptune. Neptune aspects can signal either inflation or bubble bursting at the end of inflation when faith is lost.
Progressed Vesta and MC (if the time is right) are in opposition to Venus in the tenth house, repeating the focus on reality issues. Progressed Sun started a two-year trioctile to natal Moon in January 1984, and it will reach the quincunx to natal Venus in the fall of 1984. The progressed Moon will trine progressed Venus in the summer of 1984 and it will conjunct natal Venus and join the quincunx to the Sun during the fall election period. The Sun will also trine natal Vesta from November 1983 to 1985. The patterns are mixed, but do emphasize work and money; basic earth reality issues. The Sun is also on the fifth house cusp (in Placidus and subject to the questionable time) in Sagittarius which could indicate another inflationary burst. Venus, starting a trine to natal Venus in early 1986 but quincunx natal Vesta in the spring of 1985, will repeat the fire-earth potential for conflict: desire for expansion and instant gratification vs. the limits of the material world.
In March this year, following our two weeks of research, professional discussions, and counseling efforts, I added to my collection of progressed and transit charts for major events in the history of the N.Y. Exchange. I am deeply indebted to Helen Clerf of Washington state for sending me a large batch of information on past panics. The question on conflicting dates for a panic in the early 1890s was answered. 1892 was actually a boom year, and the panic occurred in 1893. The banks started calling loans on May 3. A major business went bankrupt on May 4, and a temporary panic hit May 5 which was named the White panic for the major speculator who was hit. Soon banks began closing, and other businesses failed. Additional dates of panic in the stock market included July 11, 18, 25, 26, and 31. July 26 was named Black Wednesday. On the last day in July, the market started back up, but many bank, railroad, and other business failures continued through the year, throwing hundreds of thousands out of work and initiating a major depression. The June 27 date I had found in one historical source seems to have been less important than the May and July dates. History has its subjective component, as do all subjects dealing with human beings, and there is always controversy over interpretations, including judgments on the relative importance of different events and people.
The material from Helen Clerf also provided some additional dates of past panics in the market. March 17, 1837 was added to the date of May 10 that year. August 24, 1857 gave me a day in a year mentioned in other sources. The 1873 date should be September 17 rather than 19. The market was closed from September 18 to 30, 1873. A short panic occurred on May 14, 1884 due mainly to the failure of Grant and Ward and discoveries of manipulation and theft in some N.Y. banks. The flurry was local and short, with some bank and brokerage failures but general steadying in early June. The preceding 1883 depression had already shaken out most of the weak businesses. October 24 was mentioned as an additional important date in the 1907 panic. October 24 in 1929 was the date the bankers met and tried to repeat Morgan’s successful turning of the market in 1907. The panic had been developing since October 21, 1929, with heavy losses reported also on October 22, 28, and 29. The last mentioned date, October 29, 1929, was described as the day the “bottom fell out” with indiscriminate dumping of stocks.
Following the formation of the SEC and a general tightening of the rules on margin (credit) buying, there has been no real “panic” on the market. 1962 and 1974 saw a considerable drop in the market value, and there have been recessions (the polite word for small depressions), alternating with inflationary periods. The 1980-2 downturn was the most severe since the 1930s, and the U.S. is now embarked on a heady recovery due largely to government spending at the cost of a staggering increase in our national debt. The escalation of our swings up and down in recent years seems a fitting prelude to another extended downer in the last years of this decade.
As readers know, the U.S. charts suggest a serious challenge period from late 1986 on. But, unless we inflate the values first, or loosen the rules on credit buying, or start a run that wipes out the banking structure, the stock market may struggle through with minimal reaction. A downturn in the market is normal after a presidential inauguration, and the progressed Moon in the original market chart for 1792 will be in the tenth house in Taurus, square the tentative Ascendant, conjunct natal Dembowska and octile (semisquare) natal Juno and the tentative Antivertex during the months after the 1985 inauguration. If my theory is correct that Dembowska is similar to Saturn, there could be another correction at that time. Progressed Mars will also be starting the quincunx to natal Uranus, and progressed Mercury will square natal Mars. The Mars emphasis suggests an increasingly volatile market with inflationary pressures alternating with downers.
My attention was first called to the spring of 1985 by the progressed Moon square to the natal Sun, followed by the Moon conjunct to natal Saturn and then to progressed Mars in my version of the U.S. Declaration of Independence chart. The aspects certainly point to activity involving the government, the public, and the material world with Moon, Saturn, and Mars in the second house of the chart. One possible action at that time could be the release of the new money which has reportedly been printed by the U.S. and several other industrialized countries (Britain, Germany, Japan, etc.) The new money has metallic threads embedded in it which would trigger airport detection devices to alert authorities to large sums being smuggled out of the countries. Our Capricorn period is here, and Big Brother wants to keep track of loose cash for the I.R.S.
Another possible event for spring 1985 is an Argentine (and/or other countries) default on their debts. In the chart I have for Argentina’s independence declaration in 1816, the progressed Moon will conjunct Pluto, ruler of the second house and natural key to debt, in the spring and early summer of 1985. Other longer lasting aspects include Venus, ruler of the eighth house, octile Pluto, and Mercury, another ruler of the eighth, octile Saturn in the fifth house. The progressed Ascendant is trioctile natal Mars, co-ruler of the second house.
I also checked the charts of our presidential candidates to see if any showed extra emphasis in the spring of 1985, and I noted a strange “coincidence.” (Does anyone in astrology still believe in coincidences?) Reagan, Bush (who might inherit the office if Reagan wins and is removed in some way), Mondale, and Hart all have progressed Moon aspecting Mars around the same time. As mentioned above, the U.S. progressed Moon (in the Declaration chart) reaches progressed Mars in early summer 1985. It looks as if something will be stirred up in the country! At the same time (spring and early summer), progressed Moon is opposite progressed Sun and Uranus and natal Mars in the chart I’m testing for Russia, using the date near the end of 1922 which the Soviets consider the real beginning of their union. In the face of all that Mars, I will add that though we might well have a confrontation of some kind, I do not anticipate a lasting military threat at this time. I think the most crucial period is the early 1990s. One last item; the chart for the U.S. Constitution has progressed Moon quincunx natal Saturn-Sun during the same period in May-June, 1985.
Returning to the chart for the N.Y. stock exchange, in the first half of 1986 the progressed Moon conjuncts natal Mercury-Sun, squares Pluto-progressed Uranus, and is quincunx natal Jupiter- Neptune. With Sun, Jupiter, Neptune, and the first house Leo involved, this period of some months could mark an inflationary burst, but it might also be a shake-out time for confidence. The spring of 1987, a challenge period first noted in the U.S. chart for the Declaration of Independence, puts the stock market progressed Moon opposite the progressed Sun with the two octile- trioctile natal Jupiter. Progressed Mercury will be setting off the natal T- square of Mercury-Pluto-Uranus with a sextile to progressed Pluto and a few months later, progressed Venus will also activate the T-square with an octile to progressed Pluto. With all the tenth house rulers involved in addition to all corners of the fixed dilemma, 1987 to 1988 looks like a more major shake-out, probably connected to the banking structure and the general indebtedness in the world as well as the shifting job situation.
Other aspects include Mercury octile progressed Vesta and the tentative MC which are moving together, repeating the importance of jobs and the state of the workers. The balance of this century is likely to be spent trying to integrate the changing technology of an information age with the needs of “ordinary” humans to survive. “Ordinary” could be defined as uneducated or lacking economically valued skills. Survival is a real issue for many individuals and businesses, such as the steel industry which is threatened by cheap labor in Asia (Korea is currently building huge new steel plants), new technology that includes automation which eliminates jobs and also new products such as forms of plastic as strong as steel and much lighter, cheaper, and easier to produce. Past panics and crashes have followed periods of expanded debt, prices and speculation. Today, we have the debt, with the U.S. leading the parade. We have temporarily countered the 1980-2 depression by increasing our debts to astronomical levels. Many other countries continue to suffer a mixture of depression and inflation at the same time. Remember, the solution is practicality, hard work, and cooperation, the positive potentials of Capricorn and Scorpio, along with faith (Neptune and Jupiter). Venus and Mars rule both the “money” houses (2 and 8) in my version of the Declaration of Independence chart. Progressed Venus opposes natal and progressed Neptune from 1986 into the early 1990s. Progressed Mars starts a square to progressed Jupiter around the end of 1986 and it will also last into the 1990s. Our whole economic system, banks, stocks, bonds, etc. rests on faith. If that faith gives way and people try to take their money out of the banks, the government will have some hard choices. Since the stock market seems to anticipate the movement of the economy, we may see a general holding back through the next two years as we approach the real challenge period. The progressed Moon goes through the tenth house and the Sun-Moon trioctile lasts through 1985. If the anticipation of greater challenges ahead puts a damper on market speculation and inflation, we may not have a crash. We might simply have the stocks of successful companies holding their ground while the weak ones are weeded out. If we are to have an “up” period, the most likely time would seem to be while the progressed Moon trines progressed Venus and then is conjunct natal Venus during the last half of 1984. But speculate at your own risk. My interest is purely academic since I do not own a single stock or bond. Our personal skills, our ability to cooperate, and our faith offer us a more dependable security in the long run.